Weekly Commentary

Earnings May See Better Days Ahead

Corporate earnings growth has ground to a halt, but we think better times lie ahead. While tariffs and ongoing trade uncertainty could delay improvement, we remain optimistic that some progress on trade will be forthcoming and earnings growth could pick up over the coming...

Policy Uncertainty Intensifies

Geopolitical matters have complicated the tug-of-war between fiscal and monetary policies and contributed to investor concerns about increased policy uncertainty. Policy uncertainty will likely persist, but we think financial markets will climb this wall of worry. ...

Global Economy Muddles Along

The U.S. economy continues to perform well when compared to the rest of the developed world, and is still exhibiting growth near its long-term trend. The outlook in other developed economies is not quite as bright, however, as unconventional and aggressive policy decisions from...

Central Banks Are Back

Since we began highlighting the return of fiscal leadership as a primary driver for economic and market activity nearly two years ago, we've seen the return to central bank dominance, particularly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. This has significant implications for global markets. ...

The Curious Case of Negative Yields

There's a growing pile of negative-yielding debt around the world amid extraordinary monetary policy initiatives. While maintaining respect for global money flows, we believe the combination of economic fundamentals, domestic monetary policy, and a widening federal budget deficit limit the prospects for sub-zero yields...

Corporate Earnings Outlook

We lowered our 2019 earnings growth forecast for the S&P 500 Index on August 19 due to increased risk to economic growth and corporate profits from the ongoing trade conflict between the United States and China. Until we get clarity on trade, we believe...