Productivity is a key ingredient in keeping this aging economic cycle afloat, and a nice bounce in 2019's fourth quarter productivity may be a step in the right direction. ...
Stocks in developed markets outside the United States have underperformed those in the United States almost without interruption for the last decade. ...
After a three-and-a-half month, largely uninterrupted rally in stocks, the period of calm ended last week as the coronavirus outbreak led to a bout of volatility. ...
U.S. stocks have staged an impressive rally over the past few months. ...
Earnings growth was largely absent in 2019, but we expect it to pick up in 2020. With stock valuations elevated, we think earnings hold the key to pushing stocks higher this year. ...
The United States' airstrike January 3, 2020, near Baghdad, Iraq, that killed a top Iranian military general was a major escalation in Mideast tensions. Iran's retaliatory strike January 8 sent a message, but additional responses can't be ruled out. ...
As we begin 2020, we've had a chance to reflect on what was an unprecedented decade for financial markets. The 2010s taught long-term investors two important lessons: to ignore short-term market noise and to be prepared for volatility. It was a curious time,...
2019 was a difficult year to forecast after 2018 ended with the worst December since the Great Depression. While our positive stock market outlook proved too conservative, we are pleased to report we got more right than wrong for 2019. ...
Clarity from the phase-one trade deal with China and United Kingdom election results could help shift stock market performance drivers more toward investing fundamentals in 2020. ...
2019 was a baffling year for bonds. ...
U.S. economic growth has slowed in 2019. However, the economy is still growing, and we believe it will continue growing through 2020. ...
While earnings declined year over year in the third quarter, results still exceeded expectations. ...
Why would we write a report about recession with the S&P 500 at record highs? Consider it a check-up. ...
Consumer spending has powered the U.S. economy this year as businesses curb investments, waiting for trade and geopolitical uncertainty to fade. ...
The S&P 500 Index reached a fresh new high October 28, eclipsing the previous high of 3,025 set July 26, 2019. ...
The stock market has been hovering near record highs despite an assortment of economic and geopolitical risks. ...
The stock market has started October on a bumpy path. Many global issues remain unresolved, but seasonal forces, sound fundamentals, and breakthroughs on the trade and geopolitical fronts could help sustain the S&P 500 Index at record highs. Volatility can be uncomfortable, but...
Corporate earnings growth has ground to a halt, but we think better times lie ahead. While tariffs and ongoing trade uncertainty could delay improvement, we remain optimistic that some progress on trade will be forthcoming and earnings growth could pick up over the coming...
Geopolitical matters have complicated the tug-of-war between fiscal and monetary policies and contributed to investor concerns about increased policy uncertainty. Policy uncertainty will likely persist, but we think financial markets will climb this wall of worry. ...
The U.S. economy continues to perform well when compared to the rest of the developed world, and is still exhibiting growth near its long-term trend. The outlook in other developed economies is not quite as bright, however, as unconventional and aggressive policy decisions from...