Latest Thoughts

Seasonal (Tail) Winds

The stock market has started October on a bumpy path. Many global issues remain unresolved, but seasonal forces, sound fundamentals, and breakthroughs on the trade and geopolitical fronts could help sustain the S&P 500 Index at record highs. Volatility can be uncomfortable, but...

Earnings May See Better Days Ahead

Corporate earnings growth has ground to a halt, but we think better times lie ahead. While tariffs and ongoing trade uncertainty could delay improvement, we remain optimistic that some progress on trade will be forthcoming and earnings growth could pick up over the coming...

Policy Uncertainty Intensifies

Geopolitical matters have complicated the tug-of-war between fiscal and monetary policies and contributed to investor concerns about increased policy uncertainty. Policy uncertainty will likely persist, but we think financial markets will climb this wall of worry. ...

Global Economy Muddles Along

The U.S. economy continues to perform well when compared to the rest of the developed world, and is still exhibiting growth near its long-term trend. The outlook in other developed economies is not quite as bright, however, as unconventional and aggressive policy decisions from...

Central Banks Are Back

Since we began highlighting the return of fiscal leadership as a primary driver for economic and market activity nearly two years ago, we've seen the return to central bank dominance, particularly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. This has significant implications for global markets. ...