Latest Thoughts

The Bull Turns 11

As the coronavirus continues to scare global markets, it would be easy to forget that the current bull market started 11 years ago today. ...

Productivity Bounces

Productivity is a key ingredient in keeping this aging economic cycle afloat, and a nice bounce in 2019's fourth quarter productivity may be a step in the right direction. ...

Global Gets Going

Stocks in developed markets outside the United States have underperformed those in the United States almost without interruption for the last decade. ...

Earnings Are All About 2020

Earnings growth was largely absent in 2019, but we expect it to pick up in 2020. With stock valuations elevated, we think earnings hold the key to pushing stocks higher this year. ...

Assessing Geopolitical Risk

The United States' airstrike January 3, 2020, near Baghdad, Iraq, that killed a top Iranian military general was a major escalation in Mideast tensions. Iran's retaliatory strike January 8 sent a message, but additional responses can't be ruled out. ...

Lessons From The Past Decade

As we begin 2020, we've had a chance to reflect on what was an unprecedented decade for financial markets. The 2010s taught long-term investors two important lessons: to ignore short-term market noise and to be prepared for volatility. It was a curious time,...

2019 Hits And Misses

2019 was a difficult year to forecast after 2018 ended with the worst December since the Great Depression. While our positive stock market outlook proved too conservative, we are pleased to report we got more right than wrong for 2019. ...